The United States men’s national team will face Panama at home March 27 before traveling to Costa Rica four days later, setting up a window that could lock up their World Cup berth — or leave them scrambling in the final round.
Panama’s Surge Changes Everything
The Americans sit second in the octagonal with 21 points from 11 matches, three behind Mexico but only two clear of a Panama side that has emerged as the cycle’s biggest surprise. Los Canaleros have won back-to-back matches under Thomas Christiansen, with striker José Fajardo terrorizing CONCACAF defenses.
Fajardo’s 12 goals lead all qualifying scorers — two ahead of Mexico’s Santiago Giménez — and his four-goal haul across January’s sweep of Honduras and El Salvador announced Panama as a legitimate threat to crash the traditional powers’ party.
“We know Panama away has always been difficult for us,” said Tyler Adams, the USMNT captain who missed January’s window with a hamstring injury. “But we control our own destiny if we take care of business at home first.”
That’s the rub. The Americans have made qualifying harder than it needed to be.
Costa Rica Won’t Go Quietly
The March 31 trip to San José looms as potentially decisive. Los Ticos enter in fifth with 16 points but have found their rhythm at the perfect time, winning three of four matches including a stunning November upset of Mexico in the Azteca.
Joel Campbell — yes, that Joel Campbell — has turned back the clock at 31. The former Arsenal winger has five goals in six appearances, rediscovering the form that made him a World Cup star in Brazil 2014.
History isn’t kind to American visitors in Central America. They’re 2-6 in their last eight road qualifiers in the region, including a 2-0 loss in Costa Rica in September 2021 that helped cost them automatic qualification for Qatar.
Club vs. Country Tensions
The March window arrives during crunch time in Europe, where several American regulars are fighting for trophies and Champions League spots. AC Milan’s Yunus Musah has started 22 Serie A matches, while Folarin Balogun — who switched from England just six months ago — leads the team with eight qualifying goals despite his late arrival.
Gregg Berhalter confirmed he’s been working phones with European clubs about player availability. “We’re managing minutes closely,” he said. “But these are must-win games.”
The coach knows he can’t afford to rest key players in a window this critical.
Math Class: Pass or Fail
Beat Panama at home and the Americans likely punch their ticket regardless of what happens in San José. Their +8 goal difference dwarfs fourth-place Jamaica’s +1, and the Reggae Boyz face Mexico and Honduras — hardly easy pickings.
CONCACAF’s expanded format provides six automatic berths for the 2026 World Cup, which the U.S. co-hosts with Mexico and Canada. But finishing in the top three guarantees the best seeding and avoids potential playoff heartbreak.
Canada continues playing despite their co-host guarantee, sitting fourth with 19 points after a disappointing January that included a loss to Honduras. Even guaranteed entry doesn’t make these matches meaningless for FIFA rankings.
Both USMNT matches will air live on TNT and Univision, with kickoff times coming soon as FIFA coordinates global television windows. For a program that spent four years in World Cup exile, these 180 minutes in March represent everything.
